Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
